Sunderland's Director of Public Health gives an update on testing, social distancing and if Sunderland has reached the peak
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The team has previously said it believed Sunderland – which has been found to have the highest number of coronavirus cases per population in England – was approaching its peak in terms of numbers of deaths and cases.
Now they have said they are still looking at the statistics as they work to confirm the fact the area has passed the peak, while national efforts work to address how a second peak can be avoided.
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Hide AdThe Public Health Director has previously said Sunderland has been among the hardest-hit areas because of its aged population and the high number of smokers, drinkers and people with a poor lifestyle living in the city.
Director of Public Health Gillian Gibson said: “The health of our residents is our foremost priority, particularly at this time, and so we are very aware of the high number of cases reported for Sunderland.
“Latest data on the number of cases suggests that the rate of increase has slowed.
“We may be approaching the peak of the epidemic locally, but would need to see this sustained over a number of days to be certain.
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Hide Ad“The best way of reducing the spread of the virus is for people to continue to stay at home, observe social distancing and to wash their hands regularly.”
Ms Gibson went on to give the following updates;
Does the council’s public health team believe the lockdown has made a difference?
Yes. Although the cumulative count of cases continues to rise – we can see that the rate of increase is slowing.
From the week beginning April 13 – three weeks after the beginning of lockdown – we can see a flattening of the epidemic curve.
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Hide AdThis is because social distancing – our main strategy for reducing spread of infection – by dramatically reduce the number and frequency of contacts between people is very effective at stopping transmission from person to person.
How do you know if Sunderand has reached the peak?
How we are doing at any point in time is judged by how flat or how steep the epidemic curve is.
In order to be sure that we have reached the peak, we would need to see small or no increases in the cumulative total sustained – and the curve would then be flat.
We will know when we get there.
What data are you looking at to determine when Sunderland has reached the peak?
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Hide AdThe data we use to track the progress of the epidemic locally are the cumulative count of confirmed COVID-19 cases and the cumulative count of deaths involving COVID-19 from Sunday, March 7 – the day when we became aware of the first Sunderland case.
Data on cases and deaths registered are received daily, but because we track these based on the date the test was taken or the date the person died, then any day’s data can have an impact on the figures for a number of previous days; this is usually about three to five days, but can be longer.
This, in turn, means that we are always a bit uncertain about the last week and whether we know about all of the cases and deaths.
We are looking at all deaths registered that mention COVID on the death certificate.
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Hide AdThis is broader than the deaths in hospital measure that NHS England publishes and includes deaths outside of hospital, so in a care home, nursing home, hospice, at home or elsewhere.
What effect does increased testing have?
The figures will vary according to both the rate of transmission of the virus in the community, but also on the approach to testing - i.e. how many tests are being done and who is being tested.
At the moment these factors are working in opposition.
On the one hand, we believe the transmission of infection is reducing locally, but on the other hand, we are testing more people from more different groups. Generally, more testing will find more cases.
You’ve said unhealthy lifestyles could be a factor in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths, what can people do to help themselves?
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Hide AdIn the current difficult circumstances, we would want to encourage everyone to exercise regularly within guidelines, eat well, sleep well, avoid drinking too much alcohol and look after their mental wellbeing.
As COVID-19 is a respiratory illness, smokers are at higher risk of severe infection.
If you’re a smoker, there has never been a more important time to quit to protect yourself and to help to protect others Sunderland stop smoking services are continuing to operate although there will be restrictions For advice contact 0800 169 9913 or visit www.stopsmokingsunderland.nhs.uk
If you drink more than 14 units of alcohol a week that can negatively affect your health. If you’re drinking more, now might be a good time cut down or stop altogether.
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Hide AdWhat can people with underlying health issues do to help themselves stay safe?
For most people who are infected with COVID-19, their illness will be relatively mild and self-limiting – which means it will get better by itself without any medical intervention.
However, people with existing health conditions and the elderly are at higher risk of developing severe illness or even dying from COVID-19 should they become infected.
They should try to follow the social distancing guidance as much as they possibly can and should limit their face-to-face interaction with friends and family, if possible.
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Hide AdPeople with seriously impaired immune systems are strongly advised to stay at home at all times and avoid any face-to-face contact – including minimising all non-essential contact with other members of their household.
Many people in this group have been contacted by the NHS, with further advice.
Advice has been very clear and the best way of reducing the spread of the virus is for people to continue to stay at home, observe social distancing and to wash their hands regularly.
Gillian Gibson will be answering questions from Sunderland Echo readers every week, visit our Facebook page to submit a question.