What the underlying data is saying about Sunderland under Lee Johnson and the club's chances of promotion

His appointment at head coach was one clearly made with the long-term in mind and was accompanied by a marked change in the footballing structure of the club which is clearly looking beyond just 2021.

But there is still clearly a short-term remit for Johnson in terms of getting Sunderland out of League One.

A quick glance a the league table suggests that still looks a distinct possibility, with the Black Cats just inside the play-off places.

The signs since Johnson's first game on December 5 have been positive, but momentum is still proving hard to come by.

Yet in this season like no other, it’s easy to forget that we are only just over the halfway mark – and there are teams with games in hand on the Wearsiders.

So does the underlying data since Johnson’s arrival suggest that Sunderland are serious promotion contenders? We take a look:

IN ATTACK – WHERE DONCASTER AND PORTSMOUTH LEAD THE WAY

This is the area where most focus has been placed this season.

No team in the top ten has scored fewer goals than Sunderland this season, with the Black Cats having netted only 32 times in League One this term.

This was a particularly pertinent concern under the previous regime where goals were extremely hard to come by. Phil Parkinson would often point to xG as an indicator that goals would come for the side, but ultimately they didn’t.

Sunderland’s attacking output has improved in spells under Johnson, with the victories at Lincoln City, AFC Wimbledon and MK Dons displaying a ruthlessness which for too long hasn’t been seen in this side.

Indeed, the data suggests the Wearsiders have indeed become more clinical since the arrival of Johnson.

Their xG per game was 1.66 prior to the appointment of a new head coach, and that has dipped to 1.36 in the last ten games.

But tellingly, Sunderland are now scoring 1.4 goals per game – more than they are being expected to. That’s a stark contrast from earlier in the term when Sunderland were creating a number of opportunities but failing to make them count.

There are still concerns over goals in some fixtures though, particularly at home where the Black Cats can struggle to unlock stubborn, defensive-minded opponents.

Of the current top eight in League One, only three teams – Doncaster, Portsmouth and Peterborough United – are averaging a lower xG per game than Sunderland over the last ten games.

The Black Cats’ xG per game is steadily rising though, and you would expect it to increase further as Johnson continues to implement his style of play.

And encouragement can be found in the form of Charlie Wyke, whose 12-goal league haul accounts for 37.5% of all of Sunderland's goals in the third tier this season.

It’s clear the side need to find goals from elsewhere, and there have been promising signs on this front in recent weeks.

IN DEFENCE – AND THE PLYMOUTH AND GILLINGHAM WARNINGS

In the early weeks of the season, when goals were in short supply, Sunderland were able to rely upon a strong defensive record.

Their xGA was among the lowest in the division for large spells of the campaign and it remains among the best in the division.

Since Johnson’s arrival, the club’s xGA per game is 0.86 – which is bettered only by Lincoln City when compared to the rest of the top eight.

It’s also an improvement on Sunderland’s average prior to the change in management, during which time they were anticipated to concede 0.96 goals per game.

Concerns still persist over the goals conceded on home soil by the Black Cats, with the recent defeat to Plymouth and draw against Gillingham perfect examples of the cost of shipping too many goals at the Stadium of Light.

But broadly speaking, Sunderland can be encouraged by the underlying data behind their defensive performances.

THE WIDER PICTURE AND POINTS-PER-GAME

Of course, xG and xGA can only paint part of the picture.

They can give a broad idea of how well a team is performing and whether trends suggest they can maintain a promotion push, but what really matters is points on the board.

Since Johnson’s arrival, Sunderland have averaged 1.6 points-per-game and sit sixth in the table based purely on results obtained during that period.

Their points-per-game ratio sits firmly in the middle of those in the hunt for promotion – better than the likes of Hull City and Charlton Athletic but someway behind Doncaster Rovers, Lincoln City and Portsmouth.

THE VERDICT

Generally then, the trends are fairly encouraging for Sunderland.

Their defensive record remains strong and will undoubtedly be a key factor in any potential promotion push.

Concerns persist in the forward areas but the Black Cats can take encouragement from the fact that their xG figures aren’t too far behind those who remain in promotion contention.

Yet it’s clear improvements are needed, particularly when it comes to getting points on the board.

Sunderland’s underlying data suggests they will be there or thereabouts come the end of the season and that there have been clear signs of improvement under the new head coach, particularly when it comes to converting chances – even if creating them remains an area of potential worry.

The Wearsiders, though, are still far from certain of being guaranteed top two contenders.

Whether that changes in the coming weeks as Johnson continues to implement his ideas – and the January signings start to make an impact – remains to be seen.

But their head coach can take encouragement from some of the early data behind his start to life in the North East.

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