From takeovers to restructures: Making sense of the complicated picture at Sunderland AFC and what needs to happen next

Same old, really.

Started with the CEO denying suggestions that the club were on the brink of administration; ended with fans enthusiastically finetuning their POMO protocols.

It had been five weeks since the last league win; and seven since the last against a league opponent with eleven players.

90 minutes of attacking football later, second-placed Lincoln City had been put to the sword and for the first time in a while, it felt OK to get a little excited, perhaps even a little carried away.

These are the earliest of early days (remember Sunderland 5-0 Tranmere Rovers, some have fairly pointed out), but it was an early statement from Lee Johnson in that he vowed beforehand to be bold, and stuck to it.

Relish the feeling that as the visit of AFC Wimbledon nears, there is an enthusiasm amongst supporters to watch their team again.

One on-field performance, though, no matter how convincing, cannot disguise the unease that persists when it comes to the uncertainties that still envelop the club and they are worth dwelling on a little longer as we move into what looks (again) to be a crucial period of weeks and months…

Takeovers, bailouts and everything in between

The takeover of the club by a consortium led by Kryil Louis-Dreyfus and Juan Sartori was reportedly to be concluded in early December.

Jim Rodwell's intervention in the build-up to kick off at Sincil Bank suggested that the wait is set to go on a little longer, at the very least.

Rodwell did confirm that there had been some dialogue with the EFL regarding the deal. This represented a significant advancement on his last remarks, when he merely confirmed that the club were in a period of exclusivity with a buyer. It affirmed that while not done, there can be some hope that change may be on the horizon.

He also, encouragingly, said the will from all parties to conclude the deal remained.

Sunderland's CEO also conceded, though, that this was the most complex takeover he had been involved in, and though his comments were limited, they hinted at some of the issues slowing a conclusion.

He alluded to a loan that has to be settled, referring not directly but quite clearly to the significant sum that will have to be repaid to the FPP group when a deal goes through.

There are clearly issues to be settled and for that reason, there will be an understandable caution across Wearside.

Rodwell himself conceded that, noting that Sunderland supporters have been down this road before.

Firstly when the aforementioned American investors moved to the brink of what could have been a transformative takeover, before instead opting to loan in funds (an arrangement which means they still hold a charge over the club and its assets).

Before that, when key members of Mark Campbell's team were sizing up their offices at the Academy of Light, only for the deal to collapse and for club sources to suggest there had been concerns over funding.

The club's failings in the interim mean trust in the current regime has been entirely eroded and into this mix can be added the financial concerns of the COVID-19 pandemic.

After all, it was comments allegedly made by Stewart Donald at a meeting of League One bosses that had forced Rodwell into breaking the club's silence.

Donald was said to have claimed that the club could enter administration without support. While Rodwell said this was not the case (and that was a welcome move), he did not directly deny that the comment had been made.

The issue is this: As it stands, Sunderland will receive a £375,000 payment as part of the EFL bailout. They will also receive a portion of a further fund of £15 million, distributed proportionately based on lost gate receipts.

There is a £20 million pot beyond this, but any club who receives money from this pot will be subject to future spending restrictions.

Clubs can break these restrictions, but only if they then repay the money.

Sunderland are lobbying hard for a greater share of the fund, arguing that the current arrangements do not reflect the hardship a club of this size is experiencing as a result of the exclusion of fans from stadiums.

Supporters would indeed expect this, but it is undoubtedly a stance that raises eyebrows when it is widely known that the current regime used parachute payment money to fund their purchase of the club (and then wrote off the obligation to repay it).

In May, Madrox told The Echo that this debt had been paid down to around £11.5 million. Rodwell insists that process continues, with losses being covered to the tune of around £1 million a month.

The issue of the bailout could be a critical one, given that accessing that final pot of money could limit a future regime's capacity to invest in the team, or make them liable to repay funds that are received in the near future.

Put bluntly, the takeover needs to be sorted so that this does not become an avenue that Sunderland have to pursue and as the bailout talks progress, this is a matter to keep a close eye on.

All of this underlines the key question that Rodwell is currently unable to answer: Is this takeover the change that Sunderland needs?

Supporters have been clear over the past year that their faith in the current regime to bring about long-term growth and stability is gone.

If a delay means that Kyril Louis-Dreyfus is able to take the kind of stake that will allow him to oversee meaningful change, then that will likely be seen as worthwhile.

On this, though, there evidently remains much to be determined.

A new philosophy and where it comes from

The other slightly curious aspect of the state of play at Sunderland is how a period of profound change in the footballing operation can be explained when the arrival of a new regime is hopefully) seemingly imminent.

On this, Rodwell offered a reply that was about as clear as he could offer in the circumstances.

The decision to remove Phil Parkinson, to hire Kristjaan Speakman and subsequently Lee Johnson, were the decision of the current board.

He added, though, that he would be 'amazed' if any new regime did not proceed with those decisions. This hinted at the encouraging if slightly uneasy understanding that has underpinned recent developments.

The changes do, to an extent, reflect the medium-term overhaul that has been taking place at Sunderland since Rodwell's arrival.

Alongside the growing influence of the non-executive directors on the board, he has overseen the comprehensive dismantling of the footballing structure Donald put in place upon his arrival.

The process began in the summer, when Paul Reid, Tony Coton and Richard Hill left the club.

That was an indication of Donald’s general retreat from key decision making, and that a new power base at the club has recognised the need for a reset.

The signing of Arbenit Xhemajli was a subtle indication that the club's outlook on issues such as recruitment was changing, and that there was an increasing desire to do things a little differently.

Clearly, the break was not definitive.

Many key footballing departments remained vastly underpowered and in the summer recruitment there was something of a hybrid approach, the arrival of Xhemajli set against the continuing push of Parkinson for established League One and Championship experience in the squad.

The two approaches seemed contradictory to an extent, but the view on the board was that the best chance of promotion was to maintain some stability, and there was some sympathy for Parkinson in the way the campaign had been curtailed at the worst possible moment.

That was the pervading view in the opening weeks of the season, but the defeat to Portsmouth sent Sunderland's form on a downward spiral and there was a clear shift in mood around the time the Black Cats fell to defeat against MK Dons.

That was an afternoon that seemed to speak to two key issues.

Sunderland not only looked like a side with slim hopes of automatic promotion, but they were also outplayed by a team with a far more progressive style.

The recent arrival of both Speakman and Johnson can be seen as a move perhaps months in the works to try and address both of those issues.

Rodwell alluded to this on Saturday when he said that eventually, the current board had to stop spinning plates.

The (hopefully) imminent takeover, though, was also a factor.

The Echo understands from sources with knowledge of the talks to replace Parkinson that Louis-Dreyfus was kept informed of the process and was part of it along the way.

It is the long-term vision of his consortium that played such a big part in convincing both Speakman and Johnson that there would be the investment and overhaul needed in the long run to satisfy their ambitions.

Those who have come across Louis-Dreyfus and with knowledge of the plans behind his investment have been encouraged by the vision but also the footballing knowledge and realism behind it.

There has been some understandable discomfort on Wearside when Johnson has talked of his interactions with Donald but in the wider context of where the club finds itself, it makes sense for the head coach to build relations there.

Johnson needs long-term investment to realise his vision but he also needs help here and now.

Whether it be in the January window or in improvements such as the club's analysis team, or technology that can help deliver his training sessions, a productive relationship with the current majority shareholder could be key.

Johnson's most recent job was at a club renowned for being ahead of the curve when it comes to data analysis and infrastructure. Even if there was some disappointment with the final league position in recent seasons, the result has been a club that regularly turns substantial profits in the transfer market and is upwardly mobile in all aspects of its operation.

He has been sold a vision of a club that will look to do the same in the years ahead, even when of late it has been well behind under the current regime.

In truth, that neatly encapsulates where we find ourselves.

Johnson's early days as head coach have offered some encouraging signs of a more attacking and enjoyable approach on the pitch.

Speakman has spoken convincingly and eloquently about the merits of the new structure that has been put in place, and his focus on youth retention and development is a heartening antidote to the failure to capitalise on an opportunity for reset since relegation to the third tier.

The stability required to make good on these visions, though, stems from the very top.

That comes from the financial framework required not just to navigate this current climate of uncertainty, but to drive forward if and when a return to the Championship is secured.

It also comes from the kind of long-term planning that can only be produced from a period of stability, when talk of takeovers is long passed.

For that to happen, the evidence of recent times tells us that change is required.

A 4-0 win makes any picture look a little brighter and rightly so, but for now the biggest piece in this complex puzzle remains yet to fall into place.

Until then, the ‘alignment’ Johnson is seeking will be hard to truly capture.

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