What Leeds' Joe Gelhardt can offer Sunderland as Tony Mowbray's side deal with Ross Stewart's absence

The Black Cats’ attempts to sign another frontman on transfer deadline day ultimately fell short, with Leeds United loanee Joe Gelhardt, 20, now tasked with leading the line for the remainder of the campaign.

Not only that, but Tony Mowbray’s side will also have to cope without their attacking talisman, with Ross Stewart set to be sidelined until the summer with an achilles injury.

Despite missing more than half of Sunderland’s league the season, no striker in the Championship has a better goals-per-game ratio than the Scot’s 10 in 13 appearances this term. Stewart would clearly be a loss for any side at this level, especially for a one lacking alternatives.

Yet Sunderland and Mowbray have been in this position before, after they were left without a natural striker earlier in the campaign.

So just how much of a loss will Stewart be? And how will Sunderland manage without him?

What the data says

As you’d expect, Sunderland’s record and win percentage with Stewart in the team this season is far better.

When the striker has started in the Championship, the Black Cats have won five, drawn three and lost three (two of which they were reduced to 10 men against Sheffield United and Swansea), equating to a win percentage of 45.4%

Without Stewart that percentage drops to 33.3%, with the side winning five, drawing four and losing six. The striker has also scored in both games he’s featured from the bench, making an impact during a 1-1 draw at Hull and 4-1 win at Wigan.

It’s also worth pointing out that Ellis Simms featured in four of those five wins when Stewart has been sidelined, with Sunderland winning just one (a 2-1 home win over Wigan) of seven matches when they haven’t had a recognised striker available.

During that seven-game spell Mowbray’s side did record three draws against Watford, Preston and Blackpool, yet the side’s points-per-game figure dropped to just 0.86. In the games Stewart has started this term, Sunderland have averaged nearly double that at 1.64 points per game.

And in terms of the side’s chance creation figures and goal output, Sunderland’s expected goals figure drops from 1.59 per match when Stewart is in the team compared to 1.03 in the games he’s missed (according to Wyscout).

With the striker in the starting XI, the team’s goals per game doesn’t drop off quite as drastically, with Sunderland averaging 1.54 goals per game when the Scot has started, compared to 1.26 when he hasn’t been available.

How can Sunderland cope and what will Gelhardt offer?

The aforementioned metrics show just how much of an influence Stewart has been for Sunderland this season, with a big drop off in some areas. Still, they have found ways to score goals without him.

Of course Simms’ recall to Everton makes the situation even more challenging after the 22-year-old netted seven goals in 17 Championship appearances for the Black Cats.

Manchester United loanee Amad has also scored seven times this season, while Jack Clarke is next on the club’s goalscoring list with five.

So what of Gelhardt? And how can he contribute as Sunderland try to compensate for Stewart’s absence?

Firstly it’s important to note that, while several Championship clubs were interested in the Leeds loanee, the 20-year-old is a different type of striker to both Stewart and Simms.

"Gelhardt is a centre-forward who can also play a bit deeper or as a second striker,” Leeds writer Joe Donnohue from The Yorkshire Evening Post told the Echo.

“I think he'd have been a good foil for Stewart certainly wouldn’t have been competing for the same place in the team. He's better at running at defences, forcing his way through rather than playing on the shoulder and leading the line.

"He's got a good frame on him for such a young man, carries himself well in physical challenges and can rattle off a mean shot.”

How will he fit in at Sunderland?

In Gelhardt’s last start for Leeds during a 2-2 draw at Cardiff in the FA Cup, the striker registered just one touch in the opposition’s penalty area, with most of his received passes coming in deeper areas.

There is a similar theme when looking at the forward’s other appearances for the Premier League side last season, when he made 20 top-flight appearances, scoring twice and registering four assists.

While Gelhardt will have plenty of attacking support at Sunderland, with the likes of Amad, Clarke, Patrick Roberts and Alex Pritchard, he will need some of those players to make runs beyond him and also provide a goal threat.

Unlike Stewart or Simms, the Leeds loanee is not someone who will win the majority of his aerial duels, winning just 19.5% this season. In comparison, Stewart has won 46.6% of his attempted headers this campaign, while Simms is not far behind at 40.4%.

When asked about the partnership Stewart and Simms had formed earlier in the campaign, Sunderland captain Corry Evans told the Echo: “Listen I think any team is probably frightened of them two at the minute.

“They can make a sort of bad ball into a good ball in a way and are a threat for anyone so will cause a lot of teams problems in this league.”

Yet, just like earlier in the season, Mowbray’s side will have to adapt, predominantly focusing on quick, incisive passes instead of taking the more direct approach.

After a big slice of misfortune and disappointing end to the January window, the Black Cats’ striker options have once again become extremely limited.