The inside track on the big League One divide, where Sunderland stand and what to expect next

The fate of the League One season remains entirely uncertain, with clubs still divided on what should happen next.
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So what’s going on, where do Sunderland fit in and what should we expect to happen next?

We take a detailed look….

What’s the latest on where talks stand?

Sunderland's Stadium of Light.Sunderland's Stadium of Light.
Sunderland's Stadium of Light.

Sunderland CEO Jim Rodwell said on Wednesday that he could not see how a definitive decision on the season would be made this week.

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The EFL board held their weekly meeting that afternoon but this morning, Peterborough United’s Director of Football Barry Fry said clubs had been given no indication of any conclusions reached.

The third tier is bitterly divided.

While League Two clubs held an indicative vote to end the season last week, the Championship is slowly moving towards a resumption.

The fate of Sunderland's season remains unclear.The fate of Sunderland's season remains unclear.
The fate of Sunderland's season remains unclear.

League One is torn between the two and that is why last week, the EFL asked clubs to put forward ‘creative solutions’ to finish the campaign.

It has three principles that must nevertheless stand in any solution:

- Promotion

- Relegation

- Play-offs

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The debate over how to achieve this is proving complex and divisive, and is unlikely to be settled until next week at the earliest.

The issue of course is that this begins to make it harder to conclude any campaign before the EFL’s own deadline of July 31st.

While three weeks of training before any resumption is a must, most managers, including Phil Parkinson, believe it needs to be four.

What’s the current balance of power?

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Portsmouth CEO Mark Catlin said earlier this week that he believes there is a narrow majority who want to curtail the current campaign.

What are the arguments for not playing on?

Those who do not want to resume say the costs are too high, and the reasons for this are threefold.

Firstly, the costs of testing in line with the protocols proposed by the EFL are deemed to be too significant.

In the Premier League, the costs are being covered centrally but this is controversial in the Football League where clubs believe that money will be essential for other purposes.

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An interesting proposal gathering pace in the Championship is that the clubs who are eventually promoted could retrospectively cover the costs.

Millwall, outsiders for the play-offs, have already said they would be willing to do so.

Clearly, this is not feasible in League One where the financial rewards of promotion are nowhere near as significant.

Secondly, many clubs who are dependent on matchday gate revenue believe the losses incurred by playing behind closed doors are too great.

The final issue surrounds the government furlough scheme.

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The vast majority of League One players and staff have been furloughed, as at an early stage in the lockdown process, the PFA made clear that it would not oppose this in the lower leagues, particularly if wages were to be paid in full.

Many clubs argue that it is not financially feasible to take players and staff off the scheme without knowing whether the season will resume and on what date it will do so.

Setting a date for resuming the campaign is difficult because although the government have opened the door to playing in June, there is not yet a set date for returning to full contract training.

This is less of an issue in the Premier League and the Championship, where furloughing of players isn’t widespread and so the financial implications of starting non-contact training are less severe.

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It’s an issue that also does much to sum up the divide between clubs in League One.

Clearly, for the bigger clubs near the top with larger wage bills, the government scheme is less significant when it comes to player wages.

For smaller clubs with smaller wage bills, though, it is utterly essential.

Jim Rodwell has conceded that clubs would need a return date for both contact training and playing matches before a resumption could be agreed.

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What are the counter arguments from those who want to play on?

The costs of testing are a major hurdle.

With regards to playing behind closed doors, the argument put forward by those who want to play on is that the situation is unlikely to change before the start of any new campaign.

The obvious response to that from clubs eager for curtailment is that in which case, it makes sense to stop now and save cash reserves so they are in a position to play a new seasom behind closed door suntil fans can return.

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One fear is that using the cash advanced from the EFL and the Premier League to play now could lead to a cashflow crisis later this year.

It’s another issue that underlines the divide between clubs in the division.

For those with larger fanbases, the costs of rebates for season card holders and such like are larger, as is the potential income from streaming.

One central question that has still not been answered is what the implications would be for the league’s broadcasting contract if games are not played.

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Without knowing what potential rebate would be due to TV rights holders, assessing what clubs would lose from not playing is difficult to define.

This is one of things that Rodwell says is essential for the EFL to provide clarity on.

“We have a broadcasting deal with Sky which needs protecting, so we have to make sure as best we can that we fulfil those obligations,” he said.

“Not fulfilling those obligations, like night follows day, will come with a consequence.

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“That’s something that we, as clubs, are not quite sure of and we need transparency over that.

“That’s not a dig at the EFL or their executives, this is the art of the possible, but people are slightly unwilling to rattle that cage at times and I understand the reasons why.

“But not playing football leads to financial consequences that could be far greater than playing.

“That’s my concern.”

One other unknown is whether there will be financial support from the Premier League. The government have said they expect this, but the top tier has its own questions surrounding broadcast deals and possible rebates to consider in the short-term.

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What about health concerns and the potential contract crisis?

League One managers held a meeting with EFL chairman Rick Parry last Friday, in which medical experts were also present to discuss the practicalities of the return to training protocols clubs have been issued with.

Phase One of the return, like in the Premier League, would see players train in groups of no more than five and while observing social distancing protocols. Returning to contact training, as mentioned previously, is a far bigger issue and as of yet has not been approved by the government. If that happens, players will clearly have a decision to make as to whether they feel comfortable returning.

It’s understood that in the Championship, where the process of returning to training is slowly beginning, players have an ‘opt-out’ right at any stage. League One would surely take the same approach.

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The widespread expiration of contracts on June 30th remains another major issue.

Most clubs are of the view that as players released are paid severance money through July, they could feasibly be asked to play during that period. Ultimately, that would be a decision for every player and raises the possibility of significantly weakened teams damaging the integrity of games. This could be exacerbated if clubs with little to play for look to cut wage costs if they resume.

The EFL put forward some further proposals, such as pushing back the date at which clubs can approach soon to be free agents, and preventing those players representing their new clubs until the start of a new season.

Whether that is enough is a major debate. Rodwell has essentially said that potentially weaker teams is the lesser of two evils. It’s particularly interesting in the case of Sunderland, where ten players would be out of contract by the start of July. They have a reasonably-sized squad, but not much in the way of obvious U23 talent who could step up.

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What’s the latest with the ‘compromise solution’ put forward?

A mini-tournament or extended play-off has been mooted as it would potentially allow those clubs who do not want to play for financial reasons to hibernate, while still sticking to the EFL principles for a curtailment.

It has been backed by Phil Parkinson, who believes it would help address the issue of integrity surrounding player contracts, and that it could also create a more manageable timeframe to conclude the season.

Could that get the numbers in a vote?

Theoretically, there’s a way this could get a majority in League One, but it is far from clear-cut.

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If Coventry City and Rotherham United were not included and were awarded automatic promotion, then theoretically you could see them supporting it.

Then there would be potentially eight teams involved in the play-offs and clearly, some of those would support it.

The difficulties then begin, however.

Firstly, while the top half clubs have broadly agreed on playing on, this compromise could test that unity.

Would those who are guaranteed a play-off place under a points-per-game formula essentially reduce their chances by voting to allow more teams in?

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There is also a significant number who believe Rotherham should be involved in any play-off, given their current position.

Winning widespread support in the top half would surely require a system that offered an advantage to those nearer the top of a PPG table (and such a proposal has been mooted).

Some support would also be required from the bottom half of the table and this is again far from straightforward.

Some have already said that in line with League Two, they would support promotion on PPG, but not relegation.

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This is a major issue because it contravenes the EFL’s three principles and they have been set down in place for a reason.

Any vote to change the regulations mid-season (which this would involve) needs not just a majority of League One to support, but also the EFL and FA board. Crucially, a majority of Championship clubs also need to agree.

They are committed to relegation throughout the pyramid as they have already warned the Premier League that they expect the principles of promotion and relegation to be observed.

So what’s next?

Speaking to talkSPORT this morning, Rodwell reiterated his view that a vote remains some way off.

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Given the three principles already set down, it seems clear that any vote would either be for a resumption, or for promotion, play-offs and relegation settled by PPG.

We’re still no closer to knowing exactly what that would look like and what clubs will decide to do.

Ultimately, though, the financial implications for most clubs when it comes to resuming still at look this stage look too great to overcome.