Assessing Sunderland's Will Grigg dilemma and whether Phil Parkinson will find him a bigger role in the weeks ahead

The Sunderland hierarchy believed his experience of League One would be crucial in achieving that.

For his part, Parkinson’s early remarks made clear where he believed those gains could be achieved.

Though Sunderland had improved defensively from the previous season, a lack of clean sheets had damaged them badly in the opening weeks and this was an area the new boss was determined to make progress.

He made clear that he felt Sunderland were too open and too vulnerable to the counter-attack.

Recent form, despite conceding two frustrating early goals against Fleetwood and Coventry, shows good progress is being made on that front and with ten games to go, it is the bedrock of Sunderland’s promotion push.

At the other end, the scope for improving Sunderland’s output was clear.

Parkinson wanted more goals and bigger contributions from Will Grigg and Charlie Wyke.

Here, the progress has been mixed.

Wyke has won the trust of his manager after an early injury, while Grigg has not played any senior minutes since December 14th.

Sunderland’s form in that time has meant there has not been a great deal of debate around that decision, but it has been brought back into the spotlight this week after an underwhelming return of one point from those two crucial games.

The fear for many supporters is that while Parkinson has turned his side into an excellent defensive unit at this level, the lack of a natural goalscorer could be the difference between automatic promotion and the dreaded play-offs.

While Parkinson has consistently praised Wyke for his contribution, he has not been prolific and has arguably threatened most from set pieces.

Grigg returned to the bench at St Andrews and the regular words of encouragement from Parkinson, added to his goal in a friendly against Carlisle last week, have heightened the desire for the striker to be reintegrated into the first team.

When the teams are announced at 2pm on Saturday, we should have a far better idea of where Grigg stands ahead of the promotion run-in.

Duncan Watmore’s injury opened the door last weekend, but he is expected to be available again for the visit of Gillingham. It was a surprise to many that while Grigg was back on the bench, he was not brought on as Sunderland searched for a goal and left one substitution unused.

The argument that Grigg can prove to be a crucial player centres around the changing perception of Parkinson’s team.

During the bleak midwinter when Wyke was injured and Grigg was a relatively regular starter, Sunderland struggled by and large to create chances and score goals.

Grigg was left isolated as both he and Marc McNulty were left largely to rely on long balls that they never looked like turning into opportunities.

The nadir came at Gillingham, where Sunderland were toothless and fell to defeat with a late goal.

Now, though, their shape has a different feel.

Their wing-backs are far more attacking and particularly at home, they appear to be getting the ball into dangerous areas with far more regularity.

The argument, then, is that Grigg will be a far more effective player.

Parkinson himself put this argument forward towards the end of the window, when Grigg’s future was under regular scrutiny as fellow League One clubs eyed a potential opportunity.

He felt that the way his wing-backs were getting so high up the pitch, and the fact that Sunderland were now playing with two central attacking midfielders, would prevent Grigg being left so isolated.

Crucially, there would be more of the balls into the box on which Grigg thrives, and more of the link-up play around the edge of the box that so dismantled Tranmere.

Grigg’s goal and all-round performance that night had raised hopes that Parkinson’s arrival would spark a surge in his form.

The statistics paint a more complex picture.

The sample size of league games that Grigg has started under Parkinson in is small (six), and skewed by that Tranmere game in which Sunderland were utterly dominant.

By and large, though, Sunderland’s attacking statistics in those games compared to the long, successful run since beating Doncaster Rovers are similar.

They register a similar number of crosses-per-game (22 with Grigg, 21 since Doncaster).

As a team, they have averaged 12 shots-per-game since Doncaster. In the six games Grigg started, they also averaged 12. Passes to the final third are at a similar level, and the percentage of long passes played has remained relatively consistent.

Where they have improved is in posting consistently higher expected goals numbers. That would suggest that they are creating better chances for their forward players, playing better and more dangerous crosses and passes into the box.

It’s worth noting, too, that if we were too include the cup games during that dire run of form where Grigg featured little but the style was similar, the improvement would be more significant.

What is also noticeable in the data, and perhaps key to Grigg fighting his way back in, is the changing profile of their home performances.

Sunderland are firing in a huge number of crosses on a regular basis, and their percentage of long passes is significantly smaller.

These are the kind of performances in which Grigg theoretically would thrive.

The point, however, is that last season, and much of this campaign, has demonstrated that merely having a goalscorer means little.

Creating regular chances is key and it is here that Sunderland have fallen short for too long.

Grigg averages 2.62 touches in the box per 90 mins. Wyke averages 3.35.

Compare that to Rotherham’s Freddie Ladapo, who averages 4.4. Liam Boyce averages 4.47, Ivan Toney 5.26. Toney is averaging almost three times as many shots per 90 minutes.

Any debate about Sunderland’s strike options also has to consider the onus that Parkinson puts on them to lead the press out of possession.

Particularly at home, Parkinson believes Wyke’s intelligence and work-rate off the ball has been key to applying the pressure under which many teams have wilted.

If Grigg returns the demands to replicate that are non-negotiable.

When he has played, Lafferty has also shown a good ability to win headers and hold the ball up.

Though Sunderland’s style has evolved in recent months, that is still an important skill, particularly away from home where they are less of a potent attacking force.

If Parkinson does decide to rest Wyke, Lafferty is likely ahead of the queue.

Parkinson and the striker have maintained a good relationship, with Grigg undergoing extra training to prove himself.

Sunderland are a better, more varied team now than they were in that midwinter spell and Grigg brings a different dimension that the Black Cats would be wise not to ignore.

Parkinson has consistently said that he still has a part to play.

Whether that proves to be the case remains to be seen, but what is clear is that the striker’s return is not an immediate cure for Sunderland’s attacking concerns.

They have lacked a confident goalscorer, without a doubt, but creating has been just as big an issue.

Parkinson is confident his current shape and style can deliver results and for the most part, recent form suggests that is a fair assessment.

At the moment, there seems to be little room for Grigg.

That could change with so many twists and turns still ahead, and if it does, it will be fascinating to see whether if the striker finds this current side an easier one to thrive in.

*all stats courtesy of wyscout.com