Assessing one of the key Phil Parkinson questions and the underlying Sunderland data that should prove a concern

Sunderland’s last trip to the Keepmoat Stadium produced a win that kick-started a fine run of form and proved a key moment in a campaign which had underwhelmed to that point.

And given the Black Cats’ run of form in their build-up to this season’s visit to South Yorkshire, this also seemed like it would be a seminal fixture.

A win could have sparked Sunderland into life ahead of their trip to Fleetwood and what appears to be a fairly kind start to the festive schedule.

Anything but and the pressure on Phil Parkinson would mount - and questions would be asked.

And as Sunderland were left rocked by Doncaster’s late leveller, those questions quickly began.

A main one, and one which is worth pondering when discussing the managerial position, is have Sunderland actually improved in the last year under his stewardship?

Their league position suggests little has changed, but what kind of picture does the underlying data suggest? We take a look:

WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

Parkinson said Sunderland’s first-half performance at Doncaster was as good as the side had been in a number of weeks, but does the data suggest the performance was drastically better than when the Black Cats travelled to the Keepmoat Stadium in December 2019?

It certainly doesn't in an attacking sense, where Sunderland's xG of 0.74 on Saturday was less than half what they mustered in the same fixture last season - where they were expected to score 1.89 times.

The Black Cats produced the same number of shots in this season's trip to Doncaster as they did last season (12) but managed to increase their tally of shots on target by one.

And their crossing - both in terms of the number of deliveries and the percentage of them that reached their intended target - increased in the 2020/21 fixture, albeit not drastically.

At the other end, despite keeping Doncaster at a distance for large spells, Sunderland were actually expected to concede more goals in this season's fixture than in 2019/20 (0.96 xGA, compared to 0.73 last term).

They did, however, reduce both their total shots against and shots on target tallies against by one apiece - with Doncaster only managing two shots on target on Saturday, a number which could be seen as pleasing given how they have put teams to the sword on home soil already this campaign.

This is just a snapshot of two games, but does provide a good barometer given that both outings were deemed to be among the better performances in their respective campaigns.

And while there are some slight improvements, it's hard to find any tangible proof that Sunderland are drastically better now than they were when they visited the Keepmoat Stadium last.

If anything, they have been consistent.

There is an argument to be made that this kind of consistency can deliver promotion.

If Sunderland are equally as tight at the back and create a similar number of chances across a 46-game season, then in theory they should be there or thereabouts come May.

But football isn't won in theory and while Sunderland are creating chances, they aren't finishing them.

That's one area that certainly hasn't improved in the last year - and one which is a real cause for concern.

THE JACK ROSS COMPARISON

When Jack Ross was dismissed after eleven games of the 2019/20 season, it was suggested that the move would give Sunderland the best chance of achieving promotion.

The Scot had lost just ten games out of 75 in charge of the Black Cats when he was sacked, and had a fairly impressive win percentage that stood at 50.67%.

Indeed, Sunderland were perched sixth in the table when the managerial change was made having lost twice all term.

So with Parkinson's side currently sat eighth, with two defeats to their name, comparisons are naturally being drawn.

The manager was changed then, so why isn't it now?

It's a question that isn't without its merits - particularly when you consider Parkinson has already overseen 14 defeats during his tenure, despite managing 28 games less than Ross did.

But the difference perhaps lies in the league standings.

When Ross was dismissed, Sunderland were sat four points off the automatic promotion places having played the same number of games as Wycombe, who were perched in second.

Now, while eighth in League One, Sunderland are just two points off the top two with a game in hand.

Win that game, and things may look far more promising.

But how many times have we been in this situation before?

Sunderland have failed to make their games in hand count in previous seasons and many will point to the fact that, under Parkinson, the Black Cats have never finished a round of fixtures in a higher position than fourth.

A counter argument to that is that Sunderland have only sat in the top two for five weeks during their entire spell in League One - and two of those weeks were an international window.

That needs to change quickly, or the questions being asked of the club at all levels will only increase.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

It's tricky to find any tangible metric to suggest that the Black Cats are in a better position on the field than they were a year ago.

While they may be within touching distance of the top two, similar failings - namely a failure to make dominance pay and a lack of conviction in front of goal - remain prevalent.

That little has changed on the field is perhaps symbiotic of the fact the club as a whole feels no further on that it does a year ago.

The ownership uncertainty remains, the goal of a return to the Championship no closer to being achieved.

Indeed, there is a realisation from many in the fanbase that there are larger issues at play here, and a belief that changing the manager could yield little result unless it is accompanied by a change in direction at the top.

That must come sooner rather than later.

A message from the Football Clubs Editor:

Our aim is to provide you with the best, most up-to-date and most informative Sunderland AFC coverage 365 days a year.

This depth of SAFC coverage costs, so to help us maintain the high-quality reporting that you are used to, please consider taking out a subscription to our new sports-only package here.

Your support is much appreciated. Richard Mennear, Football Clubs Editor