The analysis that underlines why the EFL's proposed final League One table will be so contentious

There were no solutions the EFL could have proposed to satisfy all clubs.
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If, as seems likely, the League One season is curtailed, the application of any ‘sporting merit’ solution was always going to prove hugely controversial.

As it is, the EFL have opted to pursue an ‘unweighted’ points-per-game formula.

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This makes sense, to an extent, the logic being that it gives weight primarily to what has already happened, rather in attempting to predict what could happen in the future.

Sunderland's season looks likely to be curtailed next week.Sunderland's season looks likely to be curtailed next week.
Sunderland's season looks likely to be curtailed next week.

Yet it is also a simplistic approach that in a fiercely contested promotion race (and indeed relegation battle), will throw up some dubious conclusions.

So who are the key winners and losers?

Using statistics from soccerstats.com, we have assessed the run-in for each of the teams in the top eight, weighting the difficulty of their fixtures by calculating the home or away PPG average of the opponents left to face.

Of course, the great unknown is to what extent playing squads will be affected by the widespread expiration of contracts on June 30th.

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It could well be that playing on would further aid those who play teams in mid-table or near the bottom, who could take the choice to cut costs by letting first-team players leave.

That’s one caveat worth keeping in mind as we move the fixture lists...

COVENTRY CITY

V Shrewsbury Town (H) 1.06 PPG

V Lincoln City (A) 1.94 PPG

V Wycombe Wanderers (H) 1.06

V Accrington Stanley (A) 1.35 PPG

V Peterborough United (H) 1.11 PPG

V Gillingham (A) 1.76 PPG

V Oxford United (H) 1.33 PPG

V Blackpool (A) 1.71 PPG

V Burton Albion (H) 1.22 PPG

V MK Dons (A) 1.33 PPG

Overall PPG: 1.39

PPG taken from last eight: 2.75

With ten games to go, Coventry City faced one of the more hectic schedules, as well

as one of the toughest fixture lists remaining.

Though it may not look overly daunting on paper, they were due to face a number of mid-to-lower table teams who have been very strong on home turf this season.

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Their biggest advantage was that all their games against teams at the top would have been played on ‘home’ turf at St Andrews.

Their recent form has been exceptional, particularly in defence, and their lead at the top is imposing.

While debate over what happens next has been fierce, few have suggested that the Sky Blues don’t deserve promotion.

ROTHERHAM UNITED

V Southend United (H) 0.50 PPG

V Fleetwood Town (A) 2.06 PPG

V Gillingham (H) 1.17 PPG

V Wycombe Wanderers (A) 2.33 PPG

V Portsmouth (H) 1.06 PPG

V Tranmere Rovers (A) 0.88 PPG

V Doncaster Rovers (H) 1.27 PPG

V Bolton Wanderers (A) 1.18 PPG

V Sunderland (H) 1.24 PPG

OVERALL PGG OF OPPONENTS: 1.30

PPG taken from last eight: 1.88

Some disappointing results just checked Rotherham’s progress before the postponement, but they look to have done just enough to win automatic promotion on PPG.

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Given their slender lead over the chasing pack, that will be hugely contentious, particularly as they are due to play away at Fleetwood and Wycombe.

The obvious counter to that is that their away record this season is the best in the league.

OXFORD UNITED

V MK Dons (H) 0.53 PPG

V Wycombe Wanderers (A) 2.33 PPG

V Portsmouth (H) 1.06 PPG

V Rochdale (A) 1.19 PPG

V Bristol Rovers (H) 1.06 PPG

V Coventry City (A) 2.24 PPG

V Fleetwood Town (H) 1.35 PPG

V Tranmere Rovers (A) 0.88 PPG

V Bolton Wanderers (H) 0.35 PPG

OVERALL PPG OF OPPONENTS: 1.22

PPG taken from last eight: 2.00

Oxford’s season looked to be fading away when Sunderland held on for a crucial 1-0 lead at the Kassam earlier this year.

Cup exertions and the sale of Tariqe Fosu and Shandon Baptiste looked to be taking its toll, but they rebounded impressively.

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A remarkable 3-2 win over Shrewsbury Town last time out, in which they had been losing 2-0 in the first half, took them to the brink of the automatic promotion slots.

They have, theoretically, one of the easier run-ins.

Unsurprisingly, then, they are keen to restart and play to a conclusion.

PORTSMOUTH

V Accrington Stanley (H) 0.94 PPG

V Doncaster Rovers (H) 1.27 PPG

V Ipswich Town (A) 1.35 PPG

V Oxford United (A) 2.12 PPG

V Rotherham United (A) 1.71 PPG

V Blackpool (H) 0.89 PPG

V Southend United (H) 0.59 PPG

V Bristol Rovers (H) 1.06 PPG

V Burton Albion (A) 1.53 PPG

OVERALL PPG OF OPPONENTS LEFT: 1.27

PPG taken from last eight: 1.63

That run of three tough away fixtures on the horizon would surely have made or broken Portsmouth’s campaign.

Fratton Park has proven to be one of the two most imposing venues in League One this season and their form there has been nothing short of exceptional.

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Away from home has been considerably tougher going and their form heading into the long postponement across the board had dropped off the pace being set by their rivals.

FLEETWOOD TOWN

V Gillingham (A) 1.76 PPG

V Rotherham United (H) 1.83 PPG

V Bolton Wanderers (H) 0.35 PPG

V MK Dons (A) 1.56 PPG

V Accrington Stanley (A) 1.35 PPG

V Lincoln City (H) 0.50 PPG

V Oxford United (A) 2.12 PPG

V Tranmere Rovers (H) 0.88 PPG

V Southend United (H) 0.50 PPG

AVERAGE PPG OF OPPONENTS LEFT: 1.21

PPG taken from last eight: 2.25

Fleetwood Town were on a remarkable run heading into the postponement and have, on paper at least, the best run-in of any side in the top eight.

Joey Barton admits his owner has a difficult decision to make in terms of protecting a guaranteed play-off spot by voting for a PPG table, or taking the gamble of playing on.

With Rotherham still to play at home, Barton has some cause to believe they could chase the Millers down.

PETERBOROUGH UNITED

V Bolton Wanderers (A) 1.18 PPG

V Bristol Rovers (H) 1.06 PPG

V Blackpool (H) 0.89 PPG

V Coventry City (A) 2.24 PPG

V MK Dons (H) 0.53 PPG

V Sunderland (A) 2.00 PPG

V Shrewsbury Town (H) 1.06 PPG

V Rochdale (A) 1.19 PPG

V Tranmere Rovers (H) 1.00 PPG

AVERAGE PPG OF OPPONENTS LEFT: 1.24

PPG taken from last eight: 2.38

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Potential away trips to Coventry City and Sunderland would have been key for Darren Ferguson’s side, who have five fixtures on home turf where they have been excellent this season.

It’s that record which would have seen them get into the play-offs on an weighted PPG system, and is likely to be the root of huge controversy to come if the EFL framework is approved.

SUNDERLAND

V Blackpool (A) 1.71 PPG

V Southend United (A) 0.59 PPG

V Shrewsbury Town (H) 1.06 PPG

V AFC Wimbledon (A) 1.33 PPG

V Peterborough United (H) 1.11 PPG

V Burton Albion (A) 1.53 PPG

V Accrington Stanley (H) 0.94 PPG

V Rotherham United (A) 1.71 PPG

AVERAGE PPG OF OPPONENTS LEFT: 1.25

PPG taken from last eight: 1.75

With ten games to go, Sunderland had rightly been seen as one of the sides with a run-in that could see them push towards the top two.

A disappointing defeat to Gillingham and an even more disappointing defeat at Bristol Rovers checked their progress significantly.

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Their run-in remains relatively kind, but with just three home games left, they would be dependent on an improvement in their away form to trouble the teams at the top.

In truth, a four-game winless streak just before the postponement looks as if it will cost them.

WYCOMBE WANDERERS

V Burton Albion (A) 1.53 PPG

V Oxford United (H) 1.33 PPG

V Coventry City (A) 2.24 PPG

V Shrewsbury Town (A) 1.35 PPG

V Rotherham United (H) 1.83 PPG

V Southend United (A) 0.59 PPG

V AFC Wimbledon (H) 0.65 PPG

V Lincoln City (A) 1.94 PPG

V Gillingham (H) 1.17 PPG

V Accrington Stanley (A) 1.75 PPG

AVERAGE PPG OF OPPONENTS LEFT: 1.40 PPG

PPG taken from last eight: 1.50

Gareth Ainsworth insists his side were in top-two contention but without a doubt, they had a lot of work to do.

They face the toughest run-in of the top eight, and their form is the weakest of those sides.

One hope would be that their home form has remained outstanding, though they have just four games remaining at Adams Park.

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